BJP senses an opportunity to return to power in Karnatakathrough a series of defections

With two MLAs of the Congress resigning from the KarnatakaAssembly, it is clear that horse-trading to pull down the State government isunder way. The BJP is not just waiting in the wings; it is actively trying toreenact a script it has perfected over a decade and more. The resignations ofVijayanagar MLA Anand Singh and Gokak MLA Ramesh Jarkiholi can only be seen asa replay of a strategy the BJP used earlier, luring Opposition MLAs to resignfrom the Assembly, thereby forcing by-elections. The BJP’s confidence inwinning the by-polls stems from its spectacular showing in the Lok Sabhaelection. The party is yet to reconcile itself to the role of the Oppositionafter having emerged as the single largest party in the May 2018 Assemblyelection. At 105 seats in the 224-strong House, it was eight short of a simplemajority and began plans to manoeuvre its way to power. The BJP appears to beconvinced that the time is ripe for a strike, both because of its success inthe parliamentary election and the disenchantment in the Congress over thealliance with the JD(S). If enough number of coalition MLAs resign, the BJPcould claim a majority with its present strength in an Assembly of reduced strength,and by-polls could follow. The Congress-JD(S) coalition could be facing astormy Assembly session, scheduled to begin on July 12.

A Karnataka model had come to inspire non-BJP partiesnationally after the formation of the coalition government. The Congressdecision to concede the Chief Minister’s position to junior partner JD(S) inorder to prevent it from joining hands with the BJP was remarkable. But it wasalso remarkable for its opportunism. Instability is inherent in coalitions ledby smaller partners, but the present contradictions in the Congress inKarnataka, the only southern State where the party is face-to-face with theBJP, have another dimension. Legislators yearning for positions of power isnothing unusual, but they usually think twice before crossing over to adifferent party. The skills of leaders and claims of a larger purpose,howsoever meagre those may be, are factors that hold together vastly divergentambitions within a political party. The Congress is lacking in these aspectsand is paying a heavy price. If power is the only glue, it is natural thatlegislators who are denied ministerial berths would rebel. The party stillenjoys significant public support in Karnataka, as was demonstrated in thelocal body elections weeks after its rout in the Lok Sabha election. TheCongress cannot lend itself to brazen business and rent-seeking rivalries thatovershadow politics in Karnataka. If the party and its coalition survive thecurrent turmoil it will still be only a hiatus. Their long-term survival willbe even more challenging, requiring an ideological reorientation and commitmentto addressing the people’s larger livelihood concerns.